Manchester City vs Leicester Prediction

Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, are likely in the thick of the title race or at least pushing for a top-four spot by late March 2025. Despite a rocky patch earlier this season—one win in 13 games through December 2024—they’ve historically bounced back, as seen in their 2-0 win at Leicester on December 29, 2024. Erling Haaland (20 goals by December) and Savinho (key assist in that game) remain pivotal, with City’s attack averaging 1.89 goals per game this season. At the Etihad, they’re formidable—60.6% possession and 5.89 shots on target per game—though defensive injuries (Rodri out with an ACL tear, Nathan Aké with a broken foot) have exposed cracks, conceding 1.36 goals per home game. Their 3-1 win over Leicester in April 2023 at home underscores their dominance in this fixture.

Leicester, managed by Ruud van Nistelrooy, are almost certainly battling relegation—likely 19th or 20th by now. Their form has been dire: six straight home losses by March 16, 2025, and a 2-21 winless run earlier this season. Away, they’ve won once all year (2-1 at Tottenham), but their defense is the league’s joint-worst (44 goals conceded by December), and their attack is toothless—0.89 goals per game, with Jamie Vardy (7 goals) aging and Patson Daka inconsistent. The December loss at home to City exposed their fragility, despite a fleeting chance from Vardy. Injuries to Mads Hermansen (groin) and Abdul Fatawu (ACL) further weaken them.

For this April 2 clash at the Etihad, City’s home advantage and superior quality make them heavy favorites. Leicester’s last win there was a 5-2 shock in 2020, but City have won 5 of the last 6 home league meetings, often by multiple goals (e.g., 3-1 in 2023, 5-1 in 2018). Leicester’s counter-threat—Delap or Vardy exploiting City’s high line—could nick a goal, as City’s depleted defense has conceded in 6 of their last 8 home games across competitions. Still, Haaland’s scoring rate (a goal every 73 minutes historically) and City’s xG dominance (2.1 vs. Leicester’s 1.4 in December) suggest a comfortable win. Posts on X from December 29, 2024, noted Leicester’s missed chances, but City still controlled the endgame.

I predict Manchester City 3-1 Leicester. City should overwhelm Leicester early—Haaland likely scoring—though a late consolation from Vardy or Daka fits Leicester’s pattern of scoring against bigger sides (e.g., at Liverpool). Over 2.5 goals is probable (84% of City’s home games last season), and both teams scoring aligns with recent trends (42% of City’s home games this year). Leicester’s defensive woes and City’s need to regain momentum post-winter slump seal it.